Seven years ago, a mere eight words to ignite the party's annual gathering demonstrating Labour was falling out of love with its then leader. While not precisely stirring rhetoric, the phrase were greeted with rapturous applause as delegates stood for spontaneous acclamation.
As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". Context, however, is key.
During that darkly divisive time of 2018, straying from his agreed text like this was always going to be seen as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in working-class seats above the pro-European instincts within Labour. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who championed the party's base against a leader he would later replace.
The Evolution of Stance and Settled Issues
Since then, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over in 2020 was to declare the Brexit issue was resolved by the 2019 national vote. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge promises that ruled out rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.
Like his predecessor, his strategy has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in target constituencies, despite polling evidence suggests a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.
A Lid That Rattles on Europe
Yet, it’s now Starmer is now to be an embattled party leader. And, if EU relations is no longer the boiling pot in UK politics, the cap which was tightly sealed since Brexit is beginning to rattle again.
The Prime Minister and Chancellor have intensified their language regarding the damage that leaving the EU has caused to the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was his primary goal and remains his only real achievement.
Nevertheless, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has left Britain with a national economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, towers over the minor adjustments thus far implemented by ministers. Starmer’s so-called relationship reset agreed with Brussels last summer provides gains quantified in fractions of a percent.
Cabinet Divergence & Ambitious Proposals
The chancellor is one of those trying to overcome long-standing Home Office resistance to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling program for young people allowing young people can travel between the UK and the EU to study or work.
The deputy prime minister muses openly regarding the clear advantages of being in an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, recently supported an opposition proposal on customs union membership.
Although Nick Thomas-Symonds, the minister in charge of UK-EU relations, now present at all cabinet sessions, maintains the red lines are still in place, there are ways to work around them. A proposal would be to declaring the commencement of negotiations now for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the following election platform, with implementation only if securing a fresh mandate.
The Prime Minister's Fundamental Scepticism
However, Starmer has most recently damping it all down on the idea by warning rejoining an EU customs arrangement could undermine the trade pacts with America, which he regards as key accomplishments of his government.
It is understood that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.
- First, he believes any customs union agreement is now significantly more difficult because his ministers actively diverging from European rules in numerous policy areas, including the environment.
- Second, the prohibitive cost set for the UK for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure of negotiations has led UK negotiators that former EU partners are less interested in offering favorable terms with Britain than in demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
- Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, praised by Moscow, is viewed by key advisors in Downing Street as a reason for the UK to maintain distance from Europe.
A Bizarre Strategy and Strategic Calculations
This strange and concerning American strategy paper claims Europe is threatened by cultural extinction because of Muslim migration. It contains a single mention to Britain, found on a suggestion that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in our politics to foster the growth of “patriotic” parties.
However, instead of concluding that this renders America an unreliable partner, ministers reportedly fear that aligning closer with Europe would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering fragile US military support for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.
Leadership Speculation & The Echo from the Past
All of which returns us to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not an attempt for the leadership but simply an attempt to preserve the possibility of remain in a future vote. Indeed, in those days, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he now appears to be opposing.
Observers within Downing Street note that the Health Secretary, widely considered would stand in any leadership election, is part of a group of cabinet ministers letting it be known they desire greater ambition regarding the EU.
Aides to the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a future race for the top job, insist she refuses to comment on her stance on a customs union as it would merely “fuel unnecessary gossip”.
The Obvious Danger & A Wise Reminder
The risk is clear. If Starmer rules out significant moves towards a close relationship, he allows rivals to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters are to be found.
It would be prudent for Starmer to recall the effect just a few words had for him seven years ago. Potential pathways for a big offer on Europe which the PM ought to consider; he should explore them personally, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.
